Transcript

00;00;00;21 – 00;00;09;21
Unknown
Future trading involves risk not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
00;00;09;23 – 00;00;30;06

Unknown
Welcome to Ag Smarter Tech Talk today. Your host, Andy. Unfortunately, today, Cody is on the road. We do miss him dearly. He’s on the road today. He’s with us in spirit. We’re going to look at some charts that he loves, and he’s been—yeah, they came kind of at request to him. I’m sure he’s enjoying driving over a few tumbleweeds.

00;00;30;06 – 00;00;37;16
Unknown
Right now. But we do—we’ll see him here in a few weeks. But again, welcome to Tech Talk. My name is Andy. As always, let’s dive into some charts.

00;00;37;18 – 00;00;47;07
Unknown
We’ll start with the first one. So we’re going to do a couple of cash markets today, and then we’ll end with one of our favorites. We’ll see, though—you guys will get a little bit of a taste here at the end.

00;00;47;07 – 00;01;02;06
Unknown
So we’ll start with the block market. Super interesting price action that we’ve seen here over the last couple of weeks—and really, it’s sort of like I’d say it’s more like the last couple of months. And so if you go back to—this is month that we’re week ending 3/6—so we’re coming up towards the end of April here.

00;01;02;09 – 00;01;23;02
Unknown
Each week has ended where we’ve basically retraced the preceding week, but still managed just enough to where we’re stair-stepping ourselves a little bit higher—but really not by much. I mean, if you go back and look at this, this is the week ending 3/6 at end of the week at 1.6175. Here we are at 1.575 nearly two months later—super choppy sessions.

00;01;23;05 – 00;01;42;17
Unknown
The reason I want to bring this one up is we looked at this last time. I didn’t touch anything, by the way—I didn’t touch any of Cody’s stuff. I’m just the chart keeper. Cody is the one—he’s the brains behind the operation. He’s the muscle here. So we had this where we had a very short kind of reprieve pullback before seeing another kind of—

00;01;42;19 – 00;02;03;11
Unknown
I don’t want to use the word launch button—but maybe. But the idea being that we’re having some sort of kind of like Elliott wave retracement that we’re seeing here. I still—I don’t want to mess with either of these arrows because ultimately, if we continue to see this type of price action where we’ve made a pretty clear run off the lows, right?

00;02;03;11 – 00;02;24;25
Unknown
And I know it’s been really choppy here the last couple of months, but for the most part, we’ve basically gone from 1.29 up to just under 1.60 after yesterday’s session. That, to me—the fact that we’ve had this big run and this is really the best the bears were able to put up in terms of a response—that’s not, in my opinion, super bearish.

00;02;24;28 – 00;02;40;05
Unknown
If you look at the rest of the world, where—kind of where this green line is—more or less right in NZ chat or what we’ve seen on GDT has been higher than that. So from a price perspective, cheese in the 1.50s, with respect to the rest of the world, is cheap.

00;02;40;07 – 00;03;04;26
Unknown
But we’re here to talk about charts. Again, this is what I see—we had a nice pop, and now there really hasn’t been much in terms of a response out of the bears to respond to what has been nearly, call it a 30 to 35 cent rally, depending on the week you look at.

00;03;04;26 – 00;03;24;27
Unknown
Take that and look at—we had a really big downtrend that started back in—this would have been right around my wedding anniversary—9/13/2024. I mean, 9/13—I forget what year I got married, I think 2014—but yeah, right around my wedding anniversary is when this thing started.

00;03;24;29 – 00;03;41;00
Unknown
And now we’ve managed to actually not only break out of it but maintain that breakout. So here we had to, call it a false breakout, led to another low. This time you’re getting a breakout that’s maintaining.

00;03;41;06 – 00;03;56;17
Unknown
And it’s doing it after a nice little pop here. But also, with respect to the rest of the world, we’re still relatively cheap. So this strikes me as something where we could see—maybe we go trade back out of this—call it mid-1.50s futures.

00;03;56;17 – 00;04;18;12
Unknown
When I look at futures out forward—let’s just take a quick look—July at 1.77, really Q3 is called about $1.80. So the futures market is telling us that we’re going to go test this price point, which is—you know, last time we were there, we came back down.

00;04;18;14 – 00;04;36;27
Unknown
So whenever you see a big breakout like this, or a breakout of a big trend where it tested the trend, it typically becomes somewhat of a magnet. So this is 1.78.5, 1.87—this price point, which is approximately—hang on—about 1.95.

00;04;36;27 – 00;04;58;07
Unknown
So we’ll see. I think these are all valid points to be able to test this year. But the first step is breaking out of this trend and maintaining it, which is what we’re doing. So interesting one, to say the least.

00;04;58;07 – 00;05;18;19
Unknown
I’m sure Cody’s out there somewhere left-clicking something. And for those that don’t remember, left-clicking is buying. All right, next one—Cody’s had this one dialed in. I hope I can do him justice.

00;05;18;21 – 00;05;42;26
Unknown
This is weekly spot butter. So again, we filled this gap way back when, and we had the new crop pop right here since—come back down. When I look at futures—let’s go take a quick look at futures real fast.

00;05;42;29 – 00;06;04;23
Unknown
So Q3 is roughly call it like 1.94, 1.95. So Q3 is saying we’re going to be more like retracing 50% of this—break this 1.95 and change number right there.

00;06;04;25 – 00;06;26;09
Unknown
What I find interesting about this chart is that it looks somewhat similar to the block, in that you had a pretty substantial rally. So this is going from about 1.30 total to just over $2.

00;06;26;09 – 00;06;45;18
Unknown
The high here was 2.1375. So we had, again, call it like a 70 to 75 cent rally. And really, you’re not retracing a big amount of that number.

00;06;45;20 – 00;07;03;19
Unknown
You’re just starting to see a ton of volume change hands. It seems like every day we’re trading 20-plus loads, and again, we’ve only managed to retrace about $0.25 per pound after nearly a 75-cent rally.

00;07;03;19 – 00;07;25;14
Unknown
So to me, this is similar to the block chart because you’re having a retracement. The only difference is that we haven’t broken out of the big downtrend yet.

00;07;25;16 – 00;07;41;12
Unknown
So that’s the only big difference here. Once you see that—and I believe we will—then you start to look at some of these different targets. I think you can call this high a touchpoint at 2.1375.

00;07;41;14 – 00;08;09;22
Unknown
That would be kind of like the next target. If we do break out of that and start to grind higher, 2.60 could be a number to be mindful of.

00;08;09;22 – 00;08;28;15
Unknown
So yeah, let’s be mindful of the potential for some of these commodities—particularly butter—that’s had a huge break from 3.50 down to 1.30.

00;08;28;18 – 00;08;51;06
Unknown
All right, last but certainly not least—we get asked this one every so often. This is the June S&P 500.

00;08;51;13 – 00;09;09;26
Unknown
We look at this occasionally, more so from a wealth effect standpoint. When people feel like they’re making more money on retirement and stocks, they’re more willing to spend.

00;09;09;26 – 00;09;34;06
Unknown
We got to around 7,000 and then had a big break off that price. It’s struggled to maintain a breakout over that level.

00;09;34;09 – 00;09;49;21
Unknown
So I bring this up not only because of the wealth effect, but also affordability and how it plays into consumer spending.

00;09;49;24 – 00;10;07;15
Unknown
If we see a breakout into new contract highs and maintain that, I think that bodes well from a demand perspective.

00;10;07;16 – 00;10;30;06
Unknown
Whereas if not, you could see the inverse effect. People may pull back on spending.

00;10;30;08 – 00;10;51;18
Unknown
So if it breaks out—maybe we buy some. We’ll see. We’ll save this one for when Cody gets back.

00;10;51;18 – 00;11;18;07
Unknown
With that—we didn’t have any requests today. That’s okay. If anybody has questions or comments, please feel free to reach out.

00;11;18;08 – 00;11;36;07
Unknown
Make sure that when you’re watching, you hit the like and subscribe button. And with that, we will see you guys next time. Thanks, everybody.