Transcript

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Futures trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
Each week, we bring you clear, timely insight across dairy, grain, and seed markets focused on what’s moving, why it matters, and what it means for your operation.

Yeah, that’s exactly right. Yeah. So we’ve got some nice momentum on The Dairy Feed. We’ve had a few episodes under our belt. As we start heading into the end of March here, we wanted to keep the momentum moving.

We’re recording on Friday afternoon, so keep that in mind when you are watching or listening—that we know a lot can happen over the weekend.

I think just reflecting back on earlier this week, watching how markets traded coming out of the weekend into Monday’s session, and how they then reacted the rest of the week. So keep that in mind as you listen to us.

And also, as you listen, Miami University, located in Oxford, Ohio, is still in the tournament—as we record. As we record.

Okay. So carefully, there’s a milk production element to the report, and then there’s also a cow numbers element to the report. So how do you view the little bit of both? Little Goldilocks action—a little bullish, a little bearish.
Still growing.

Okay, that’s an interesting take, Kathleen. In terms of the—let’s say, let’s say put this report aside—we’re heading into the end of March. We’re wrapping up the first quarter.
Is there a seasonal trend that folks need to look for when it comes to milk pricing as we enter the second quarter here in less than two weeks?

Okay. Very interesting. Appreciate you responding to that. I was curious—we’ve had a lot of questions as well on some of the calls we’ve been on, so it’s always super interesting.

But yeah, this report, of course, is going to be the talk of the town, one would think, moving through this weekend and into next week, which then is the final full week of March.

Okay. It’s going to be interesting to watch as we push into Q2. I know I’m excited.

Luckily at this point—luckily, I mean, TSA may determine otherwise, as well as just disease-ridden children—but we are due to at least be away from home for a few days. So we’re trying not to stock the fridge too much yet.

But as we return and then map out our plans with family and friends nearby, we’ll be doing some stocking—some fridge stocking.

What a topsy-turvy-ness. Yeah. And for the dairy farmer who is listening and watching to this show, the grain markets had a nice start to the week, which means lower pricing for your feed inputs.

And we talked about that on this show earlier this week—that again, we are recording on Friday afternoon, the 20th of March.
As we move through the week, though, we did see some elevation in pricing. Now today, Friday, we’ve seen a little bit of red on the screens. Corn is down, let’s say $0.04 after the close.

Beans down 5 to 6. Meal is down, let’s say, $3 to $4 per ton.
So finishing the week with a little bit of risk-off as you head into the weekend—I feel like that is a bit natural at the moment, especially seeing the activity around the world that has triggered this volatility and some of the strength.

We’ve seen a lot of questions, and Kathleen, we talked about seasonality earlier on dairy.

Real seasonality as we move into the 1st of April when it comes to the grain markets. And at this stage, the focus has not really been on some of the seasonal impactful reports, such as—we’ll have an annual planting projection report here on March 31st.
So that’s in, let’s say, 11 days from now. That’s usually very impactful because we are going to be entering that time where we are doing field work, where you’re getting ready to plant.

I believe our friends in the Mississippi Delta region—so the southern areas of our grain belt—are already out there and getting some planting done, probably some early soybean planting and maybe corn in certain areas of that part of the country.

But at this stage, the headline still remains: what on earth is going to happen with fertilizer pricing as we move through the rest of spring and summer?

A lot of dialogue with our farmers, with our grain team and their farmers and their vendors about fertilizer mostly being available domestically.

Has it been actually purchased or priced by our farmers yet as we move into what is going to be the planting season now?
And will these higher fertilizer prices impact decision-making on corn versus beans? Or will futures pricing on corn and beans—which have moved fairly dramatically just even this week alone—is that enough to offset?

So when you look at December corn trades somewhere above $4.90 per bushel, does a higher fertilizer price ultimately get offset by that higher corn futures price?
We will see.

And you asked me earlier this week, Kathleen, on this show—the planting report—is it going to take into account the changes we’ve seen globally in fertilizer prices?

And I think I noted those surveys were probably about wrapped up or closed. So the short answer is probably not.

And I think we have to take those numbers with a grain of salt, as those numbers are probably reported before things really got out of hand here.

And just have to keep that in mind as those reports are released.
So I think maybe, Kathleen, on that front—should we hear from Jake? Words from Wichita.

Words from Wichita – Jake Kingsley

Happy March Madness, everyone. I hope your bracket looks better than mine.

While we take a few days off from basketball, market madness remains in full effect.

Corn and soybean meal futures fell Friday and Monday as funds continue to reshuffle their decks, and the potential for a resolution to the war with Iran gets new life.

Feed markets opened higher on Sunday night before giving back all gains and settling lower on Monday afternoon—a move that followed a post by President Trump claiming positive discussions with his Iranian counterparts and a potential for a five-day pause on striking Iranian energy infrastructure.

Now, given the short shelf life of such headlines, we had feed buyers working to take advantage of the dip to price April feed needs, and in some cases May as well.

Expanding drought conditions in the Plains states have diminished the wheat crop outlook, and we’re working with our dairies to secure forage and fiber needs through September, as prices look set to climb.

Soy hulls and cottonseed are primary concerns, as wheat, hay, and cotton outlooks all become more supportive of fiber prices.

We’ve been watching the cottonseed market closely, and old crop offers are firmer, too, in Q1 on crush margin strength.

We’ve been preaching patience for any new crop purchasing, but we may be pivoting into a buying mode soon if we can get some decent offers over the next week or so—to stay ahead of crushers, who appear to have plenty of room to pay up for seed for the foreseeable future.

So that’s a quick look at feed markets. We’ll see you again next week from colorful Colorado.
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