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Ag Smarter – Tech Talk: All Spot, All Signals: Dairy Markets Heat Up Fast 

Podcast Description

In this special “all spot” edition of Tech Talk, Cody and Andy break down the latest action across dairy markets—before the cash session even begins.

From whey building toward potential new highs, to cheese showing breakout strength, butter testing key trendlines, and nonfat dry milk surging to its highest levels in over a decade—there’s no shortage of momentum (and questions).

Are we on the edge of a broader dairy rally—or due for a pullback?

Tune in for sharp analysis, market signals to watch, and the kind of insight that helps you stay ahead of what’s next.

Ag Smarter – Tech Talk: All Spot, All Signals: Dairy Markets Heat Up Fast 

Transcript

Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

Probably give or take, you know—whatever—one time zone after another, who cares? So I went to school at the University of Idaho. Idaho is predominantly on Mountain Time, except the University of Idaho’s campus in Moscow is on Pacific Time. It’s like the one little sliver of Idaho that’s in Pacific Time. He’s like freaking out.

I don’t know why.

I did—you know that?

You know, how about that? Go Vandals. They made the tournament. They lost by like 40 points—but hey, who’s counting?

They needed you in there.

Been like boxing people out and stuff like that. Just like—man, I gotta go to that game.

Before the gas station—it’s all spot, all the time. We had an internal request for a few of the spot markets—just a few. And then in our preview show, it was like, “You know what? Let’s just do all of them. They all deserve equal consideration.” We’re gonna do more.

Ready?

Are you ready? I’m ready. Let’s do it. Start. We’re just going to go right down the line, starting from the top—dry whey. Everybody forgets about whey. Don’t ever forget about whey.

Yeah. So I didn’t move anything since last time we talked. This is your prediction—I believe $0.86. Is that right?

Somewhere around $0.86. You heard it here first—or second, I guess, because we already ended up there. What’s interesting is that we had this little gap right here that no one filled, and it is once again trying to make a higher low. Here’s one, here’s two—does this make three? It sure feels like it.

What’s interesting is we started to see some block trading going on here, I think as of yesterday. Let me just pull up the data—I don’t want to mess this up.

So yeah, we did see some trade in futures and PACs. Q2 traded $0.68, Q3 traded $0.69 yesterday. At the time, that was higher than where the futures were trading. Now we’re a little bit higher in Q2.

It’s just interesting—we haven’t seen it really break yet. We’ll get another print today, so we’ll see. But the cash market hasn’t been breaking all that much despite spot having that setback.

So the futures activity plus NASS and PSR suggest that we at least close this gap—if not more. I’m with you—I think this is a higher low and we’re creating an ascending triangle.

If you remember, an ascending triangle is when you have a horizontal resistance line and a series of higher lows pushing up against it. Eventually, you either break out to the upside, or something has to give—you either roll over and break those lows, or you break out.

So we know where your head’s at. What do you think?

I don’t know why I said we know where your head’s at and then asked what you think. That doesn’t make sense. I’m all over the place today.

This feels like the year. That high is $0.8675—I believe that’s an all-time record. It is. This feels like the year we can go break that price.

There’s so much going on. Class III traded $21 in May the other day—where did that come from? We were just talking $15.

This looks like we have a gap to fill. If this is truly an ascending triangle, it’s going to break out. That could put in a brand-new high this year.

There’s a lot of buzz around protein—everything has protein now. Doritos, Pop-Tarts—everything. It’s crazy how much protein is getting thrown around.

Yeah—how many grams of protein are you getting?

Alright, get it together.

I average about 180g a day.

We gotta get those numbers up—come on. This is protein season. Let’s go.

Yeah, about 180g a day. Alright, let’s keep this going.

Blocks have been super interesting recently. You had that big candle—look at this—way ahead of expectations.

We had this downtrend since September 2024. It hit once, twice, three times. Then it breaks out, fails, but buyers stepped in hard.

They pushed the market up 13.25 cents the following week. Now April cheese is around $1.70–$1.71, working on its second week of pricing.

Something’s going on.

You could argue a cup-and-handle pattern here—but I’m not ready to say that yet. If it were, you’d expect a stronger move higher.

I think the next step is gradually working up to test resistance levels—not a straight shot.

This market has had a lot of head fakes—breakouts that fail, then reverse. But if we maintain this breakout, these levels become magnets.

So I’m not fully sold on the cup-and-handle, but I do think we’re heading higher.

At the very least, we agree—you want to be a buyer on breaks. Whether it’s gradual or explosive, the direction feels higher.

Butter’s been interesting. New crop started March 2nd—prices popped but couldn’t hold.

Same type of chart—downtrend since September.

This feels like a “buy the break” setup now. You were a seller of rallies, but now we’ve broken out of that lower range.

Feels like we round out, put in a higher low, and then break the trend.

That would signal the end of the downtrend from September 2024.

A lot of things are bubbling right now.

Cheese is at the highest level since April 2014.

Technically, there’s nothing showing weakness yet. You’re trying to call a top in a strong market—like standing in front of a freight train.

Futures feel nervous—spot is strong, but futures aren’t fully buying it.

That could lead to volatility. But you need the cash market to show weakness first—and it hasn’t.

Feels like it would take a news event to trigger a move—like we saw before with sudden price drops.

Until then, we wait.

We had a request to cover a few spot markets—we covered them all.

Cody’s doubling his protein intake.

How many laps is a mile? About 35 lengths in a pool.

Get that protein up. Let’s go.

That’s all I’ve got.

Get outside and enjoy it. Enjoy your weekend.

We’ll see you next time on Tech Talk.