Where do dairy markets start 2026, and what’s driving volatility?
A low-price setup with big swing factors: milk supply, export competitiveness, and demand uncertainty (plus possible plant closures or USDA wild cards).
How does new cheese capacity change the market?
The “big wave” of cheese expansions is described as nearly complete (major plants coming online), raising the stakes for demand and exports.
What’s the milk supply outlook, and why might it take longer to turn?
They do not expect meaningful U.S. slippage until late Q3 to Q4, with global milk also running heavy.
How important are exports in 2026?
Critical. 2025 exports were a key pressure valve, and 2026 depends on staying price-competitive to keep that outlet open.
What’s changing in demand (protein and GLP-1)?
GLP-1s are reshaping food spend, but protein is a winner. That creates upside for dairy protein and risk for some cheese-heavy occasions (like pizza).
What are the key risks to monitor, and how do you manage risk in 2026?
Watch supply, exports, and demand. They emphasized tools like DRP, LGM, and DMC to help manage downside risk.
