Transcript

00;00;00;22 – 00;00;26;23
Unknown
Future trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities. Hello and welcome. Who? Another edition of the Grain Feed brought to you by. Ever act as your weekly news feed for all things grain and all things feed. Each week we bring you updates on the markets with you need Perspectives for an amazing team of analysts with the intention of helping dairy and livestock producers manage their risk.

00;00;26;23 – 00;00;58;29
Unknown
I’m your host, Jim Matthews, reporting from the Chicago office on what is a slightly warmer December day was at the bears game on Sunday, and it was pretty chilly, so we’re happy to see the lovely and balmy 30 degrees again here in the Midwest. Joining me today from Wichita, Kansas, Director of Feed Foundations Mr. Jake Kingsley. And from Madison, Wisconsin, dairy market advisor Miss Katie Burgess.

00;00;58;29 – 00;01;25;29
Unknown
Team. How are we today doing pretty well Jim doing good. Jim also enjoying the warmer sunshine. Yeah, yeah. Katie. It was, it’s pretty gnarly up here. For, for a few days. And then I think it’s going to be 50 degrees potentially on Christmas, right? I mean, we are making just a very dramatic swing in some holiday temperatures here.

00;01;25;29 – 00;01;46;06
Unknown
We’ve had, I think the largest amount of snowfall this early in decades. But any the any hopes for the kids thinking we would have a lovely white Christmas? I think those are fading pretty rapidly now. I think those are fading. Is that true in Madison? I think so, I mean, we have a lot of snow here, so I don’t know if it will all disappear.

00;01;46;06 – 00;02;09;03
Unknown
But yeah, I have shoveled plenty of snow already for December 17th, so I’m going to hold onto that. Yeah. It’s, I have been dusting different back my phone. I do during other times of the year, so I’d say I’m okay with the break. I’m okay with taking a break. Jake, how are things down in old Wichita, Kansas?

00;02;09;05 – 00;02;33;26
Unknown
Oh, we’re doing all right. We’re in the, 50s. I think we might be pushing six zero come Christmas, which is. Oh, my. Pretty crazy pretty Jake when they’re when. See, like, we deal Santa deals with lots of different conditions up where, like Katie and I are from. How does how does Santa handle those big wind gusts? You guys get down in the plains and maybe there’s snow, but maybe there’s there’s not.

00;02;33;27 – 00;02;57;04
Unknown
What’s going on down there? How does he do it? Well, I think, if he’s going in the right direction and helps out on, feed efficiency for the reindeer and this year, he might need a little sunblock. It looks like. So different challenges this go around, but he’ll make do. I tell you what, it always, always comes back to feed, even when it’s Santa Claus.

00;02;57;04 – 00;03;16;18
Unknown
That’s how obsessed we are here at Ever AG is. When we think about Santa, we think about those reindeer. We think about feed efficiency and what those animals need to fly through the various climates of the United States and of course, the world. But, that’s that’s so that’s what comes to mind. And of course, the dairy side.

00;03;16;18 – 00;03;41;18
Unknown
Right. We got to think about how much milk we’re going to leave out for all Saint Nick. I mean, this is a this is a dual sided operation. Here. We think about dairy, we think about feed. And that is what we have here on the green feed today before we timestamped the broadcast. Just want the viewers and listeners to be aware that this will be the last episode of the Green Feed as we know it.

00;03;41;21 – 00;04;03;11
Unknown
It will not be the last of Mr. Jake Kingsley and myself, nor Katie Burgess as you know it. At least I hope that’s the case. Knock on wood, no guarantees, of course. But as we move into the new year, we’re hoping to change it up a little bit on the ever ag media front. So stay tuned for some for some little teasers and bites coming from us.

00;04;03;11 – 00;04;30;06
Unknown
We’re very excited about some exciting updates and improvements here from the ever ag media side, so stay tuned. That being said, Michael, if you would please kindly timestamp the broadcast. It is Wednesday afternoon. We’re about five minutes after the official settle in terms of the Chicago Board of Trade grain and feed markets. We did close out March corn up four and a quarter cents at four 40.75.

00;04;30;07 – 00;04;55;24
Unknown
Nice little recovery on the corn market today after breaking down through what had been that longer term upward channel that we saw starting back and let’s say mid August. But clearly 435 able to be somewhat late. Formidable support level at least at the moment for the nearby corn market. We had March Chicago reached down three and a quarter still holding five bucks.

00;04;55;24 – 00;05;20;06
Unknown
We or 5 or 6 and a quarter. Jan Beans continues its decline. It was down four and a quarter cents at ten 58.5. Then we had Jan Meal that stubborn little byproduct, but not as stubborn these days, though, Jake, we were down 440 per ton, holding Jan meal under 300 bucks per ton at 298. Even March meal still hanging in there at 301 80.

00;05;20;13 – 00;05;50;22
Unknown
We’ll see how well 300 bucks per ton can hold for that meal market. There’s also been a little bit of action in the milk market lately. Nothing wild, but let’s say going into the weekend. Katie. Actually, Friday brought a little excitement to the milk markets here to kind of close out last week. And then as we at least run through the first few days of this week, things remain, let’s say slightly elevated.

00;05;50;22 – 00;06;17;27
Unknown
We don’t want to get too excited, but I guess looking at these markets and then knowing that we’re heading into the rest of the year, and I still think we have a couple big milk reports next week, even before we hit the Christmas holidays. So, Katie, what’s your take on these dairy markets? Yeah you’re right. Last week on Friday we finally got a bounce higher off the lows, which was good to see because there had been a lot of red days in a row in the marketplace.

00;06;17;29 – 00;06;35;09
Unknown
And so nice to see the market bump a little bit higher. So just to set the stage, you know cheese is up just shy of 140 at this point. So still a low level compared to history but better than the sub 135 where we had been, which was a two and a half year low posted earlier last week.

00;06;35;12 – 00;06;57;08
Unknown
And so as we’re looking at the markets right now, there are just a lot of questions swirling, both about supply and demand. So, Jim, you referenced we got a USDA milk production report next week on Monday. I will note that we are expecting a big number, probably somewhere between 4 to 5% growth. I mean, just a big number because it’s an easy year to be comparison.

00;06;57;11 – 00;07;19;24
Unknown
Based on bird flu in California last year. Plus the U.S dairy herd has 200,000 more cows than we did a year ago. So on the supply side, you know, we know the supply is there. The questions are about demand. And, I don’t know, maybe a silver lining of the prices going this low this early is does it give us at least a last minute chance at booking some Q1 exports?

00;07;19;26 – 00;07;36;09
Unknown
European cheese prices had been below ours. European cheese prices now moved back up to the one 50s. So us in the one 30s, maybe we’re able to get a little bit better exports booked than we would have thought just a month ago. And I guess I will call out though. I mean, you talked about it. Santa drinks out of milk.

00;07;36;09 – 00;07;59;04
Unknown
I don’t know, maybe leave out a full gallon for him. This year to help these dairy prices, but also big time of year for butter for Christmas cookies, you know, have you whipping cream for your hot cocoa cheese platters, all these things. So it’s an important demand season. Retail sales do seem decent coming out of Thanksgiving. Hopefully strong sales hold up through the Christmas holiday given low prices.

00;07;59;04 – 00;08;18;09
Unknown
We are seeing some more promotions and I will call out to. There have been some, you know, fast food chains that have promotions going on right now too, which seem to be driving traffic into stores as well. You know, one notable one has been McDonald’s has been running this promotion, called The Grinch Meal, where you get some socks and a Big Mac and maybe some other things.

00;08;18;11 – 00;08;37;09
Unknown
So it does seem like when we watch foot traffic into restaurants, you know, sometimes special things like that do help boost demand. So hopefully that means some more cheese slices heading out the door. And at this point, I think the question is this year it’s really been about exports. So kind of bringing it back. I think that export piece is going to be the most important.

00;08;37;09 – 00;08;58;13
Unknown
As we head into 2026. But plenty going on here in the domestic industry as we wrap up this year as well. Okay. Very exciting. Now, Katie, personally, I know when we have holiday parties and people like to bring like a bottle of wine or something nice for the hosts, I do recommend just bring a nice big goal gallon of milk.

00;08;58;13 – 00;09;13;10
Unknown
I think that says, I think that’s really all you need at a nice holiday party. Just a big old jug of milk. And I think if you bring some hot cocoa mix to go with it, then you are fine. I think you’re fine. I think that’s the way Santa operates. I think that’s the way we can all operate.

00;09;13;10 – 00;09;37;06
Unknown
So it’s something to consider. Katie, as we move past the holidays, what do we need to look for from demand type of events? And people talk about the like the big supply, you know, versus the big demand push of between Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s. But then people like talk about the Super Bowl and then we move in towards the spring.

00;09;37;06 – 00;10;02;21
Unknown
Like what else do we need to keep an eye on from the demand side of this, especially bringing up like McDonald’s has their Grinch campaign that you noted? I think there’s a couple fast food campaigns happening with some fun characters. The Burger King maybe doing like SpongeBob, right? I mean, there’s a handful of these fast food chains are trying to drive demand on their side, but what else should we be looking for here as we look a little further out?

00;10;02;23 – 00;10;19;21
Unknown
Yeah. You’re right. I mean, once we get through Christmas and New Year’s at Super Bowl and then it gets quiet and the dairy demand front until Easter. And so, Jim, you kind of point into it of we’ve got though a couple of good promotions from some fast food places. I know other chains who have run promotions here this year.

00;10;19;23 – 00;10;44;29
Unknown
They’ve seen increased traffic. And so, you know, at one point, these are the lowest cheese prices we’ve had in a couple of years. Butter prices are at the lowest level since 2021. And so I think from a domestic demand perspective the theme is then that value helps drive consumption. And so hopefully we can see some folks do some more creative things to drive dairy demand and what otherwise is historically a quiet period here.

00;10;45;02 – 00;11;11;22
Unknown
And the rest of these winter months, because we know we’re going to have supply. The question is about demand. And so that’s where we’re going to need to see it come through. Okay. Very interesting. Thank you for that. Katie and Jake, we referenced earlier in the episode, we’re always thinking about Feed Zero, thinking about how those reindeer’s reindeer, I should say, are going to be consuming and maintaining their energy levels through the big holiday.

00;11;11;22 – 00;11;32;26
Unknown
But, you know, asking Katie about some of the big potential demand events as we push into the calendar year of 26. What are you thinking in terms of the feed markets? Because we’ve had a pretty nice pullback here at the board, at least on the futures side of your feed pricing. I, I, I addressed corn at least breaking out of this little upward channel.

00;11;32;26 – 00;11;56;13
Unknown
But very difficult to say that corn is in a downtrend at all. I think best case scenario for someone feeding corn is that maybe we’re entering a little bit of a sideways trade here to be determined. But Neil, quite the pull back at the board over the last couple of weeks. I mean we’re at a $30 per ton plus pullback from the highs.

00;11;56;15 – 00;12;15;26
Unknown
What are we looking at here Jake. What kind of opportunities do we have moving forward. Yeah I think you get into this time of year for feed. And the concern is always logistics and availability. I think folks in the northwest are experiencing that right now. And a lot of the western US markets are dealing with, some pretty heavy flooding and a lot of wind events coming through.

00;12;15;26 – 00;12;44;12
Unknown
I think particularly Washington, that has already disrupted rail lines, bringing in canola to a handful of different regions. So that’s why we always try to be proactive in getting most of our November December feed priced out ahead of this time of year. Just weather events, holidays, and lack of labor availability to execute as efficiently as we normally do.

00;12;44;14 – 00;13;12;24
Unknown
I think with this pullback in futures here recently, you can pretty comfortably go ahead and go get your January and potentially even some of your February needs covered up if you’re still exposed on corn or other protein, ingredients. I don’t want to get too far out into the markets here because it does feel like there’s still some more room to work lower, especially in corn futures and bases.

00;13;12;24 – 00;13;37;04
Unknown
I think you most folks have a lot of their protein bases booked through next September. And a lot of futures even booked through March or even a little further out. Would like to see us break that $300 mark on soybean meal futures and, maybe see if we can break down to four and a quarter or even better on corn futures and improve on basis there after the first year on corn before we do too much there.

00;13;37;04 – 00;14;05;07
Unknown
But a few opportunities right now and also seeing this stuff retrace, some folks are taking advantage of getting the first layer of next year’s feed managed with some sort of cost effective call strategy or some sort of topside coverage. Just being down here. We are now in what is a very typical South American weather market. They have big yields.

00;14;05;07 – 00;14;27;14
Unknown
Projected balance sheets on that last policy were very stable and pretty healthy, both domestically and globally. But we’ve got some big numbers printed for, the upcoming crop in South America. And then, of course, we’re not too terribly far away from thinking about what kind of acreage we’re going to put in the ground in the US next spring.

00;14;27;14 – 00;14;53;19
Unknown
You know, it’s a new year and just, a couple of weeks here. So the first layers there to protect for next year while this market is suppressed, you can get some corn coverage on for 5 to $10 a ton, pretty close to the money. And you can get something on soybean meal is going to be a little less cost effective, just not quite as much flexibility and, fluidity in those markets.

00;14;53;19 – 00;15;17;02
Unknown
But still some opportunities while that mark is down there in the three teens. So that’s what we’re looking at today okay. Yeah. It’s a it is a quieter stretch at least at the moment. But yeah January could give us some interesting data. And we talked with on Katie’s side of things getting some of that milk data right before, you know, the new year.

00;15;17;05 – 00;15;45;09
Unknown
I think after the new year for us in January, there’s going to be a big round of data here. We’re going to get a Jan Wise, but we’ll also then get we’ll get the December 1st, stocks report. That’ll happen, I believe the same day the Jan was the report. So giving us somewhat of a final print number, if you will, at least for a bit on the supply side, the crop that was harvested here, this fall.

00;15;45;12 – 00;16;08;08
Unknown
So a lot of data will hit as we move into the first half of January and then some. Just some other items of, like the CFTC should, should be caught up on that managed money data in terms of knowing exactly where managed money stands, from a futures and options standpoint. So that’ll be nice to see that finally get caught up.

00;16;08;08 – 00;16;31;12
Unknown
Obviously, export sales inspections, all that good stuff is, pretty much running up to full speed at this point. So it’ll be an interesting start to the calendar year, that’s for sure. And then Jacob mentioned, what are we going to plant? Right? I mean, we’re maybe four months from bulk planting, which is crazy. But that’s how we have to think about this thing.

00;16;31;13 – 00;16;53;02
Unknown
And I think a lot of it’s going to depend on, you know, I thought we’d go through the whole episode without saying China, but I think it’s going to depend on what China actually does with this bean crop. And we saw a little bit of support in terms of financial assistance coming from the federal government towards road crop farmers, maybe not as much as folks were hoping for, but there’s some things.

00;16;53;02 – 00;17;21;22
Unknown
So we’ll see how that ultimately changes the game. But then other stuff like hey, Mexico, going to keep buying as much of this grain as they have been. What’s going to happen with our with our cattle markets as we enter 2026? And of course, the South American weather situation is going to be very key. So I think that being said, we should probably wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

00;17;21;25 – 00;17;46;00
Unknown
Jake, anything special on the Christmas wish list? I really don’t remember. I’m working hard. I’m working in Santa’s toy shop this year. See? Yeah. There you go. Yes, I’m on the naughty list. Well, I hope that you’re you’re trying to work your way off of it. Sounds like, about you. Katie. What do you got?

00;17;46;02 – 00;18;07;24
Unknown
You know, we’re, doing some travel over the holidays, so just hoping for, you know, fun times with family. It’s all you can ask for. That’s very nice. Very, very wholesome. Yeah. We just we just want, you know, peace on earth and, everybody to have a wonderful and healthy and peaceful holiday season here. So we’ll be thinking about everybody over the next couple weeks.

00;18;07;27 – 00;18;31;27
Unknown
And also it is not goodbye because you will be stuck with the likes of Jake and myself when it comes to some of the new material we are putting out there. But Jake, since it’s the last, maybe official grain feed episode, you’ve been my partner and recurring guest here for four years at this stage, which is pretty wild.

00;18;31;29 – 00;18;56;11
Unknown
It’s about as long as I’ve been working here. So, just want to acknowledge the partnership that we’ve had and the fun that we’ve had through this run of four years and informing folks on how to manage their feed procurement. You provide some amazing insights. And again, you’re just going to be getting Jake and I maybe in a different format, but you’re still going to get the information that you need.

00;18;56;13 – 00;19;18;13
Unknown
And coming from the Grain Feed. And of course, folks like Katie being our amazing guests with some awesome, awesome dairy commentary and other markets. It’s great to work with people like you. So I’m personally very grateful for the both of you. And we’d also like to thank Michael and the Insights Crew, for whom we are also very grateful for their support.

00;19;18;15 – 00;19;30;23
Unknown
Thank you to the viewers for always watching and listening to the Grain Feed. Contact information is on the screen. We greatly appreciate your feedback. Happy holidays from the Grain Feed.