Transcript

Futures trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.
Welcome to Ag Smarter – The Dairy Feed, a new podcast from the Ever.Ag team. I’m Kathleen Wolfley, Vice President of Insights at Ever.Ag, joined by the one and only Jim Matthews, Vice President at Ever.Ag.

Each week we bring you clear, timely insight across dairy, grain, and feed markets—focused on what’s moving, why it matters, and what it means for your operation.

Coming up today, we’re digging into what’s shaping the grain and dairy markets right now—from global supply pressures and geopolitical concerns to demand signals beginning to show up in price action.

We’ll hear from Jake Kingsley on what he’s seeing in feed basis markets across the United States in a new segment called ‘Words from Wichita.’ Then we’ll talk live dairy markets with Cody Coster.
Jim Matthews: I’m doing very well, Kathleen. How are you?

Kathleen Wolfley: I’m doing great. Hard to believe it’s already March. Every time someone says spring is coming, I remind them—it’s still March. Let’s not get too excited yet.

Jim Matthews: The biggest story since the weekend is the escalation of tensions in the Middle East involving Iran. From a market perspective, we saw grain and feed markets move higher into the weekend before pulling back slightly as trading reopened.

As we record Tuesday midday, markets are largely unchanged but have experienced considerable volatility. Soybean meal for May is around $312 per ton, while May corn is holding under $4.50.
One key input for dairy farms to watch is energy. Diesel prices remain elevated and crude oil continues to trade firmly, which directly impacts farm operating costs.

Kathleen Wolfley: Higher fuel prices also eat into consumer disposable income. As we move toward spring and summer, that could influence demand for dairy products both at grocery stores and restaurants.

Crude oil has moved sharply higher in the past few trading sessions, with nearby contracts trading above $75 per barrel. That’s a move worth watching closely.

Jim Matthews: Now let’s bring in Jake Kingsley for our new segment, Words from Wichita.
Jake Kingsley: Hello everyone! It’s great to be back talking feed markets. I’m on the road this week in Amarillo, Texas, and we’ll have updates from the High Plains Dairy Conference on next week’s episode.

Corn basis has drifted slightly lower over the past 60 days in many rail‑dependent markets. In the Midwest, basis has been stagnant or slightly stronger due to ethanol and export demand.
Protein markets have diverged. Soybean meal has held steady while canola basis has firmed following the resolution of a trade dispute between China and Canada.

Volatility is expected to continue as vegetable oil prices push crush levels higher and processors work to keep both oil and meal moving.
The cottonseed market also appears poised for another expensive year due to weak cotton futures and limited production expectations for the 2026–2027 crop year.

Distillers grains and other byproducts have firmed slightly alongside gains in soybean meal and corn futures, though ample supply has limited large price moves.

Most regions should feel comfortable purchasing spot loads for now. A move lower of $15–$20 per ton would likely represent the best‑case downside scenario unless broader markets break significantly.
Jim Matthews: Now we welcome Cody Coster as our inaugural guest.

Cody Coster: Thanks for having me on the show. I’m honored to be here.

Today is Global Dairy Trade day, and we saw nearly every commodity overseas move higher except lactose.

Mozzarella prices overseas are around $1.90 per pound, up roughly 8%. Whole milk powder rose about 4.2% to roughly $1.75 per pound equivalent.
Butter was another big mover, climbing about 6% to roughly $3.05 per pound.

Earlier today Class III futures were down slightly, likely reflecting uncertainty tied to geopolitical tensions. However, stronger Global Dairy Trade results helped bring some support back into dairy markets.

Cheddar blocks are trading around $1.54 per pound—levels I didn’t expect to see this year. I thought we might remain closer to the $1.20–$1.30 range, but global markets have pulled prices higher.
Looking ahead, we’ll likely see more milk components—especially butterfat and protein—rather than a major increase in fluid milk production.

As we enter the traditional spring flush, warmer weather and improved feed intake typically drive stronger component production heading into summer.

In terms of strategy, cheese prices may struggle to break through $1.60. Producers may want to consider hedging opportunities if we approach that level.

If $19 milk appears on the board for late 2026, that’s worth serious consideration. After all, $19 is better than $14.

Jim Matthews: Thanks to Cody Coster for joining us on the inaugural episode of Ag Smarter – The Dairy Feed.

Kathleen Wolfley: And thanks to everyone listening. If you found today’s episode helpful, please like and subscribe, and share it with someone who could use some market clarity.

That’s all for today. We’ll see you next time on Ag Smarter – The Dairy Feed.