Corn
- December corn futures closed at $4.3675 per bushel, up 1.5 cents week-over-week. The March contract ended the week at $4.4475 per bushel, three cents lower.
- Corn export sales totaled 1.995 million metric tons, at the upper end of expectations.
- Ethanol production rose to 1.126 million barrels per day, up 1.2% week-over-week and +4.9% on the year. Stocks totaled 22.511 million barrels, up 2.5% on the week, but down 2.1% versus 2024.
CORN COMMENTARY BY BRANDON WEIGEL
- Corn markets have seen more of the same: lightly chopping within an upward oriented channel and lacking andy major shift-worthy news. March corn futures found support at the bottom side of the channel last week at $4.35 per bushel, and the top end of the channel now lives around $4.58 per bushel.
- Corn export demand continues to be off-the-charts good and on pace to achieve a new record, with season-to-date exports up 71% versus last year. US FOB corn export prices remain the most competitive in the world, under that of both Brazil and Argentina, leaving US corn as the most favorable choice on the global export market.
- The December WASDE report will land next Tuesday. Many expect that corn yields will decline in this report and/or the January WASDE, which will include final harvested yield data. However, a small yield cut is likely to go unnoticed as there is room to reduce feed and residual use demand in the balance sheet. South American planting progress continues to move along. As of the latest report, Argentina was over 40% complete with corn planting, in line with last year and tracking ahead of the five-year average.
- Domestic feed buyers and global trade partners alike continue to buy price breaks, keeping solid support under corn. Barring any major South American weather issues, corn should remain rangebound. Seasonality historically shows corn prices working higher into the first half of a new calendar year.
Soybeans
- January soybeans finished Friday at $11.0525 per bushel, 32 cents lower on the week. March futures settled at $11.1600 per bushel, down 30 cents.
- Soybean export sales reached 1.248 million metric tons, within the predicted range.
SOY COMMENTARY BY JON BAHR
- Soybeans had a quiet, slightly softer week. A headline late last week reported China banned five cargo ships from Brazil due to contaminated wheat in the cargo. The market did not appear to have any reaction this week, but it will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the Brazilian soybean harvest. A lot of traders are also working on positioning for the December WASDE report.
- Quiet exports are likely behind the soy market softness. When there were no flash soybean purchases from China, the market had a hard time finding a reason to push higher. Brazil still has the cheapest soybeans in the world and that’s making it hard for the US to look competitive.
- As it stands, the soybean market seems stuck in the middle and doesn’t know which way to break. Typically, the market doesn’t like to spend much time between $11 and $12 – it either flies up over $12 or retreats below $11. That hasn’t been the case for the last month as it has been content trading in the range of $11.05-$11.50 on the nearby market. Without consistent interest from China, I would look for this market to go back down and fill the gap left on October on the weekly chart around $10.60 futures.
Wheat
- Nearby wheat futures ended the week at $5.3750 per bushel, up 6.5 cents compared to the previous Friday.
- Wheat exports were at the upper end of expectations, with 505,415 metric tons sold.
WHEAT COMMENTARY BY VERL PRATHER
- The wheat market has failed to produce much excitement. Similar to other row crop markets, wheat seems to have settled into a range of trade correlating closely with the respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
- Snow flying in US winter wheat growing regions early this week helped to protect the crop from plunging temperatures later. Thus far, no large concerns exist for US wheat production. However, the latest condition reports from USDA do feature Good to Excellent conditions below last year’s. Meanwhile, production reports in Canada released on Thursday exceeded analyst expectations as Statistics Canada predicts 11.2% growth in total wheat production compared to the 2024 crop year.
- The Black Sea region remains in turmoil after numerous failed attempts at peace deals. Wheat traders are in tune with news headlines out of the region, but as of late there has been little market reaction. It appears that market participants could be waiting for actual proof that a deal is in place before getting too excited about placing their next trade. Longer term, peace in the Black Sea would likely result in a rebound to agricultural production in Ukraine.
Futures and options on futures trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended for informational purposes. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable but is in no way guaranteed. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past results are not indicative of future results. Jon Spainhour, Brandon Weigel, Jon Bahr and Verl Prather maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this research report at the time it is published. Erica Maedke and Kathleen Wolfley do not maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this research report at the time of publication. This report is in the nature of a solicitation.