The Weekly Wire: Grain – December 12, 2025

Corn

• USDA’s December WASDE report pegged US corn ending stocks at 2.029 billion bushels, down slightly from November’s 2.154 billion bushels and below the consensus call for 2.124 billion. 
• Yield held steady at 186.0 bushels per acre. Total acres were pegged at 98.7 million, unchanged from the November report. Total production was also unchanged at 16.752 billion bushels. USDA did lift exports to align with strong sales and projected commitments, adding 125 million bushels more than last month. 
• The December contract closed at $4.3150, down 5.25 cents on the week. March futures settled at $4.4075 per bushel, four cents lower. 
• US ethanol production totaled 1.105 million barrels per day, down 1.9% on the week but up 2.5% year-over-year. Stocks totaled 22.510 million barrels, even with last week but down 0.6% versus 2024. 
• Corn exports totaled 2.380 million metric tons, at the top end of the expected range.

CORN COMMENTARY BY MEG JOHNSTON

• With December corn futures off the board this week, we start looking ahead to 2026 and even 2027 futures markets. Corn futures have felt very rangebound since the beginning of December, and without bullish or bearish news, futures could continue to trade sideways throughout the remainder of 2025.
• I found USDA’s neutral outlook on corn interesting. US corn ending stocks stayed at 2.029 billion bushels, and USDA shaved world corn ending stocks ever so slightly from 280.71 million metric tons to 279.15 million metric tons. There was an increase in corn exports but no reductions to yield or ending stocks. Overall, the marketplace had a very neutral reaction because it had already calculated in the increased exports, so there was no new news to trade from.
• With the upcoming holidays, markets are typically quiet, but they can always surprise us.   

Soybeans

• According to USDA’s December WASDE report, US soybean ending stock estimates totaled 290 million bushels, even with the November estimate and short of the consensus call for 302 million. 
• US soybean yield estimates were unchanged from November at 53.0 bushels per acre. Harvested acres were also unchanged at 80.3 million, and total production stayed the same at 4.253 billion bushels. 
• January soybeans ended the week at $10.7675 per bushel, nearly three cents lower versus the previous Friday. March futures closed at $10.8675 per bushel, down almost 30 cents. 
• Outbound soybean volume reached 695,598 metric tons, at the lower end of the expected export range. 

SOY COMMENTARY BY NATALIE MCCARTY

• USDA didn’t make any changes were to the US soybean balance sheet on Tuesday. Notably, USDA did not revise exports, which are projected to only be down 15.1% from last year despite limited purchases by China, our largest buyer. 
• January soybeans broke back under $11.00 per bushel this week as China has only purchased 3.2 million metric tons ─ far short of the 12 million metric tons the White House indicated would be purchased. Even if purchases that are identified as “unknown” destination are included, the total only comes to 4.4 million metric tons. On Tuesday, the US Trade Representative specified that the deadline for China to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans is the end of the “growing season,” not the end of the calendar year as originally shared.
• The export window for US soybeans is narrowing as a large South America soybean crop is nearly all in the ground. Brazilian crop agency CONAB predicts the crop to be 177.12 million tons, which would be another record. Timely rains are expected across Brazil over the next two weeks, giving the newly planted crop a good start.
• Argentina cut export taxes again this week as they continue to fight for their share of the export space. Export taxes on beans went from 26% to 24% and meal/oil taxes from 24.5% to 22.5%. This is the lowest bean export tax since 2007. 
• Watch technical indicators as a gap exists in January soybeans from $10.6300 to $10.7025. Should China purchases remain lackluster, the market will most likely trend back to fill that gap.
• For feed buyers, the pullback in soybean futures is good news as soybean meal has followed. January futures dipped below $300.00 per ton on Thursday before closing at $301.70, which is more than a $30-per-ton drop. USDA reported soybean crush this week at a record 237.1 million bushels, surpassing expectations. The Canadian canola crop is of record size and canola crush remains robust as well, but China is not buying from them either. Therefore, protein availability is good. A price of $301.80 per ton is the 200-day moving average, which will need to be broken to push us below the psychological support level of $300.00 per ton. 

Wheat

• In its December WASDE report, USDA pegged US wheat ending stocks at 901 million bushels, unchanged from the November report but higher than the consensus call for 890 million.
• The March Chicago wheat contract closed at $5.2925 per bushel, down 6.5 cents on the week.
• Wheat exports totaled 850,418 metric tons, above expectations. 

WHEAT COMMENTARY BY LORI NELSON

• Tuesday’s WASDE report offered no changes to US wheat supply, as production, use and ending stocks were left unchanged. The season-average farm price stayed at $5.00 per bushel. USDA applied offsetting adjustments between feed/residual usage and export volumes, resulting in a neutral overall balance. 
• World supplies increased, driven by larger harvests in Canada, Argentina, the EU, Australia and Russia. Consumption is up primarily due to expanded feed and residual use across exporting countries.
• More global wheat trade is supported by increased exports from Australia, Canada and Argentina that offset declines from Turkey and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are expected to rise due to strong production from major exporters. 
• Fund positioning could influence price direction. Markets note large short positions in managed money, so any bullish news ─ even modest ─ could trigger short covering.
• Short-term, expect sideways to gently lower wheat prices, unless export data or geopolitical disruptions change the picture. Mid-term, watch the US export pace, which was above the expected range this week, and Black Sea developments. If inspection and shipment data exceed USDA’s unchanged projections, they could justify a revision in January and spark a price rally. But without fresh bullish signals, higher probability moves may come from seasonal trends and unexpected disruptions rather than fundamentals. 

_{Futures and options on futures trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended for informational purposes. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable but is in no way guaranteed. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past results are not indicative of future results. Jon Spainhour, Brandon Weigel, Jon Bahr and Verl Prather maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this research report at the time it is published. Erica Maedke and Kathleen Wolfley do not maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this research report at the time of publication. This report is in the nature of a solicitation.}