The Scoreboard
Comment
Last week, we learned that… a measure of world trade suggests that the world economy might be in better shape than we thought. For all the worries about tariffs and concerns about global economic growth, cross-border trade in goods increased by 4.4% in 2025, according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (also referred to as CPB).
Zooming in, both developed and emerging economies enjoyed better activity, with growth in imports at +4.1% and +4.3%, respectively. While conditions in China remained soft (imports grew by only 0.2%), other emerging economies in Asia saw inbound goods traffic surge by 10.4%. That may reflect recovery from punishing inflation from 2021 to 2023 and a weaker USD. Latin America also saw a significant increase in imports, up 7.1% year-over-year. CPB notes that recent months show a volatile pattern likely tied to tariff announcements and subsequent delays/adjustments — suggesting some timing effects — but the breadth of improvement still points to more resilience than many expected.
One important nuance: CPB flagged that recent trade data can look choppy because tariff announcements (and subsequent delays/changes) can pull shipments forward and then leave a hole later. Still, the breadth of the 2025 gains is a constructive signal. If it persists, it’s another reason to be at least modestly more bullish of dairy and other ag commodities including pork.
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“Big pizza” endured another mediocre quarter, and now we’re seeing the fallout. Last week, Papa John’s reported that US same-store sales declined 5.4% in the fourth quarter, the worst showing since 2019. The company announced that it would close 300 underperforming units over the next year. Earlier in February, Pizza Hut said same-store sales declined 3.0% and told Wall Street it would shutter 250 stores. That’s a lot of closures — about 5% of the combined total for the companies. Consumers are eating less pizza. Papa John’s CEO Todd Penegor noted that his company was seeing a lot of size trade downs into medium, providing “a little bit of pressure on our business…”
Domino’s fared better, with same-store sales up by 3.7%, but even that trailed the rate of food-away-from-home inflation for the quarter.
Less pizza consumption means less cheese and pepperoni consumption, potentially eroding demand for suppliers.
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Americans continued to buy more beef in January, with the mega-storm Fern likely adding to the push. Circana data compiled by Anne-Marie Roernik of 210 Analytics and published by National Provisioner showed fresh beef retail volume up 4.7% year-over-year, the best showing since May. This happened even with ground beef prices reaching a new all-time high of $6.75 per pound nationally (up 22% year-over-year). Elsewhere, pork sales volume increased 2.9%, with chicken up 2.6% and bacon down 1.0%. The scramble to stock up ahead of Fern’s arrival made a difference, though. According to Roernik:
In the first, second, third and fifth weeks of January, pound sales were down year-on-year for the total meat department as well as the two biggest sellers, beef and chicken. The arctic storm that impacted many states led to sold-out meat cases and a 31% surge in dollar sales the week ending January 25. Volume rose by more than 25%, with beef volume climbing even higher, at +30.3% over the same week in 2025.
Continued beef demand strength at high prices increases the odds that dairy farmers will continue to see solid income from their day-old calf sales.
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Butter sales stayed strong during the first week of Lent. According to Circana, butter & butter blend volume sales increased by nearly 3% year-over-year during the week ending February 22, marking the fifth consecutive week with positive results. The average price increased to $4.74 per pound, up eight cents on the week, but down 9% year-over-year. Natural cheese sales got back into the black, but barely, with volume up fractionally. Average price: $4.90 per pound, down two cents on the week and down 4% year-over-year.
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More promotions and lower prices should keep butter sales rolling. USDA reports that 11,920 stores have butter deals for the week ahead, up 36% from the week before and 8% year-over-year. The average price drops to $3.53 per pound, down three cents on the week and down 24% year-over-year. Things remain less active for cheese, with 10,455 stores featuring six-to-eight-ounce shreds, down 12% from the prior week and 5% year-over-year. Average price: $2.65 per package, up 49 cents on the week and up 15% year-over-year.
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