Transcript

March 11

Futures trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Content provided in this segment is meant for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.

Hello everybody and welcome back to Tech Talks presented by Ag Smarter.

I’m Cody, he’s Andy, and today is Wednesday, March 11th.

We’re actually recording this in the afternoon today after running into some technical difficulties this morning. But we’re back on track — the train is on the rails and we’re rolling.

Let’s start with crude oil, because this chart is unbelievable.
This is a daily chart, and if you look at Monday’s candle it tells the whole story.

Crude closed Friday around $87.50, then opened Monday above $91 and rallied all the way up to $113 per barrel before reversing and dropping back down to around $79.
That’s an incredible swing in a single session.

Crude is one of the contracts that doesn’t have traditional price limits, which means moves like this are possible.

It reminds us of moments like April 2020, when crude oil famously traded negative — hitting -$37.63 per barrel during the pandemic.
Right now the market is extremely headline-driven, largely tied to developments in the Middle East.

Technically speaking, crude appears to be forming a pennant pattern, which typically signals that another round of volatility may be coming.

The big question is which direction the breakout will take.

If the market breaks higher and starts retesting that $113 area, it would likely surprise many traders who expect things to calm down.

But history shows that crude can move quickly — in 2008 crude traded above $129 per barrel, so three-digit prices are not unprecedented.

Energy prices affect nearly every part of the economy.

Consumers feel it immediately at the gas pump, but businesses feel it as well through higher transportation and operating costs.

The next few trading sessions could be critical in determining whether crude breaks out of this pennant formation.

Next up is feeder cattle, another chart that’s attracting attention.

Looking at the weekly chart, the market appears to be forming what could be a lower high, which is often a technical sign of weakness.
Feeder cattle have struggled to push decisively above the $370 level, and the recent price action suggests the market may begin testing lower levels.

A retest of $300 is not impossible if the market continues to lose momentum.

Markets often shift psychology quickly. What begins as small daily declines can suddenly turn into sharp selling as traders rush to exit positions.

The final chart is dry whey.

Prices recently dropped from around $0.68 down toward $0.60, breaking an upward trendline.

However, the chart may be forming an ascending triangle pattern, which is typically a bullish formation.

If whey prices establish a higher low and continue pushing against resistance near $0.86, the market could attempt another breakout higher.

Demand dynamics around protein products remain strong, which may help support whey prices.

That wraps up today’s charts.

Thanks to Erica for submitting the chart requests for today’s episode.
If there are markets you’d like us to cover in future episodes, let us know and we’d be happy to take a look.

Markets are shifting quickly right now, so we’ll continue tracking these charts closely.

Until next time, thanks for watchingTech Talks.
If you haven’t already, like and subscribe, and share the show with a colleague or friend who follows the markets.
We’ll see you next time on Tech Talks.