Corn
• USDA pegged US corn yield estimates at 179.3 bushels per acre, down from 183.1 in December and the consensus call for 182.7. Production estimates reached 14.867 billion bushels compared to 15.143 billion the previous month and expectations for 15.095 billion. Ending stocks were also below predictions at 1.540 billion bushels, down from 1.738 billion in December and expectations for 1.675 billion.
• US harvested corn acre estimates for 2024-25 reached 82.900 million acres, up from estimates for 82.700 million acres in December and the consensus call for 82.638 million.
• March corn futures ended the week at $4.7050 per bushel, nearly 20 cents higher compared to the Friday before. The May contract closed at $4.7950 per bushel, up more than 21 cents.
• US 2024-25 corn crop export sales were below expectations at 444,950 metric tons. There were no new-crop sales.
• Colombia purchased 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year.
• Ethanol production totaled 1.102 million barrels per day, down 0.8% on the week, but up 3.8% year-over-year. Stocks advanced to 24.148 million barrels, up 2.2% week-over-week and +0.9% compared to 2024.
CORN COMMENTARY BY NATALIE MCCARTY
• With January 20, inauguration day, quickly approaching, much uncertainty exists in the agriculture space. President-elect Trump says that one of his first moves once back in office will be to impose an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, plus a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada. This would have large implications for corn, as all three countries are typically among the main customers for US supply, with Mexico currently in the top spot. These tariffs, in conjunction with the strong US dollar, have the potential to disrupt the export landscape. Current export commitments represent 62% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 56%. Shipments are up 27%.
• Key biofuels policies are also in limbo, including the important 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit. Uncertainty remains as to whether President Biden will try to release short-term guidance before leaving office. Biofuels, including ethanol that has a carbon intensity lower than 50%, are eligible for this credit. Therefore, the direction of this policy has potential to impact the amount of corn used for ethanol. President-elect Trump has indicated that he would repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, of which the 45Z Tax Credit is part of.
• While we have seen corn futures rally in the last month, the basis has remained under pressure, helping to offset some of the price move. At this time of year, farmers typically sell grain to take advantage of the new tax year.
• Since July 16, managed money has been unwinding their record short position. Currently, money managers are long 223,896 contracts. Their buying has supported the futures move.
Soybeans
• US soybean yield estimates totaled 50.7 bushels per acre in January, down from 51.7 bushels in December and below analyst predictions for 51.6 bushels. Production estimates were also lower at 4.366 billion bushels compared to 4.461 the previous month and expectations for 4.453 billion. Ending stocks dropped to 380.0 billion bushels. December estimates were for 470.0 billion bushels and the consensus call predicted 457.0 billion.
• Harvested soybean acre estimates reached 86.100 million acres, down from 86.300 million in December and predictions for 86.306 million.
• The January soybean contract settled at $10.1350 per bushel, 32.5 cents higher on the week. March futures ended the week at $10.2525 per bushel, up 33.5 cents.
• Old-crop soybean export sales totaled 288,671 metric tons, below the predicted range. With 400 metric tons sold, 2025-26 crop sales were at the bottom end of expectations. Soybean oil 2024-25 crop sales reached 34,634 metric tons, within predictions, while 69 metric tons of the new crop sold.
• Private exporters announced the sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destination for delivery in this marketing year.
SOY COMMENTARY BY LORI NELSEN
• Soybeans showed some strength to start the week, with the US dollar weakening a bit. Mid-week, the USDX worked back up to just under 109, keeping the soybean market in a tighter range as we approached the end of the week. Soybeans have been following soybean meal and, from a technical perspective, soybean meal is looking a bit over bought.
• US exports are turning to a short-term opportunity as South America gets closer to harvest. Argentina is starting to show areas of dryness. If it does not receive moisture in the next couple weeks, we could see the good-to-excellent rating move lower. Meanwhile, conditions in Brazil seem to be adequate for the growing season.
• Inauguration Day is approaching and talk about tariffs is increasing. Reports indicate China has made itself less reliant on US soybeans in anticipation.
• US producers are considering planting more corn with a corn to soybean ratio around 2:7. If we see more corn planted as a consideration, will the soybean price need to push higher to buy acres this spring? We still have an abundance of soybeans in the world.
Wheat
• USDA pegged US wheat 2024-25 ending stocks at 798.0 billion bushels compared to 795.0 billion in December and expectations for 799.0 billion.
• Nearby wheat futures closed at $5.3075 per bushel, up 1.5 cents week-over-week.
• US 2024-25 wheat crop export sales fell short of predictions at 111,309 metric tons. There were no new-crop sales.
WHEAT COMMENTARY BY JIM MATTHEWS
• March Chicago wheat futures have maintained their downtrend since October, with global markets comfortable with the size of the US and world balance sheets. Despite the continued trend lower, however, the market has found support near the $5.30-per-bushel level, with unwillingness to push further.
• Managed money maintains a sizeable net-short position in the Chicago wheat contract, and as of December 24, it held its largest net-short in over a year. Since the Christmas holiday, it seemed as if managed money was slightly reducing its position and taking profits into the New Year. But, so far, 2025 has mostly been a retesting of the lows.
• Drought in the Black Sea region has largely been resolved with sufficient moisture this winter, which gave market bulls little to work with in recent months. Although acreage in the western US remains dry, the US balance overall appears to be healthy.
• Friday’s WASDE report from the USDA confirmed healthy end stocks as exports were unchanged. The global balance sheet also provided no cause for concern, with world end stocks of 258.82 million metric tons. March futures reacted by ticking up, and one can expect more of the same in the coming weeks, as this report sets the tone for futures until the spring.
Futures and options on futures trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for every investor. Information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended for informational purposes. Information is obtained from sources believed reliable but is in no way guaranteed. Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past results are not indicative of future results. Brian Fletcher, Jon Spainhour, Lori Nelsen and Jim Matthews maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this research report at the time it is published. Katie Burgess, Mark Majoros and Natalie McCarty do not maintain financial interest in the commodity contracts mentioned within this the research report at the time of publication. This report is in the nature of a solicitation.